Track Record
Provisional response metrics across 3 verified evaluated events
PTI has temperature data from 2026–present. 337 source-verified historical events are eligible once temperature coverage exists, spanning 2015–2026. 728 cataloged events are pending source review and excluded from headline metrics.
Last evaluated: May 14, 2026 at 1:35 AM
Coverage Note
The verification gate is working, but the current response-rate sample is small: 3 of 337 source-verified events currently overlap PTI temperature history. 334 verified events still need retrospective temperature coverage before they can affect headline response metrics. Treat the percentages below as current-data metrics, not a full-corpus backtest.
Hit Rate
0.0%
0 of 3 verified events had a spike response
Same-Day Rate
0.0%
0 of 3 verified events had a same-day response spike
Weighted Response
0.0%
Severity-weighted spike response (critical=3x, major=2x)
Heat Coverage
100.0%
3 of 3 verified events reached the severity heat floor
Baseline Accuracy
100.0%
1 of 98 quiet days evaluated, 0 false positives
Correlation
-0.467
Pearson r (impact vs. spike)
Response Summary
Response by Severity
critical
0%
0/0 response hits (80 verified total)
major
0%
0/3 response hits (197 verified total)
moderate
0%
0/0 response hits (60 verified total)
Operational Quality
Latest 20 Corrections
Pending Review
728 cataloged events are excluded from public accuracy math until source URLs and verification notes are reviewed.
Verified Event Evaluations
| Event | Expected | Actual | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | US Temporarily Lifts Sanctions on Iranian Oil | major | 30 | 68.8 | |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Democrats Hold Counter-Events to State of the Union | major | 15 | 68.4 | |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Trump Imposes New Global Tariff | major | 15 | 63.7 | |
| Dec 14, 2020 | Electoral College Confirms Biden | major | 16 | — | — |
| Dec 14, 2020 | Electoral College Votes | major | 10 | — | — |
| Dec 13, 2020 | SolarWinds Hack Discovered | major | 16 | — | — |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Supreme Court Rejects Texas Election Lawsuit | major | 17 | — | — |
| Dec 8, 2020 | Safe Harbor Deadline Passes | major | 14 | — | — |
| Nov 25, 2020 | Trump Pardons Michael Flynn | major | 14 | — | — |
| Nov 19, 2020 | Giuliani Four Seasons Total Landscaping and Legal Challenges | major | 16 | — | — |
| Nov 9, 2020 | Trump Refuses to Concede Election | critical | 22 | — | — |
| Nov 7, 2020 | Biden Declared President-Elect | critical | 25 | — | — |
| Nov 3, 2020 | 2020 Presidential Election | critical | 25 | — | — |
| Oct 26, 2020 | Amy Coney Barrett Confirmed | critical | 20 | — | — |
| Oct 26, 2020 | Barrett Confirmed | major | 10 | — | — |
| Oct 22, 2020 | Second Presidential Debate | major | 15 | — | — |
| Oct 14, 2020 | Hunter Biden Laptop Story Breaks | major | 16 | — | — |
| Oct 12, 2020 | Barrett Confirmation Hearings Begin | major | 16 | — | — |
| Oct 8, 2020 | Plot to Kidnap Governor Whitmer Foiled | major | 17 | — | — |
| Oct 7, 2020 | Vice Presidential Debate | moderate | 11 | — | — |
| Oct 2, 2020 | Trump Tests Positive for COVID-19 | critical | 25 | — | — |
| Sep 29, 2020 | First Presidential Debate Chaos | critical | 22 | — | — |
| Sep 29, 2020 | First Presidential Debate 2020 | major | 10 | — | — |
| Sep 26, 2020 | Barrett Nominated | major | 10 | — | — |
| Sep 26, 2020 | Amy Coney Barrett Nominated to Supreme Court | critical | 20 | — | — |
| Sep 23, 2020 | Breonna Taylor Grand Jury Decision Protests | major | 18 | — | — |
| Sep 18, 2020 | Ruth Bader Ginsburg Death | major | 20 | — | — |
| Sep 15, 2020 | Abraham Accords Signed | major | 14 | — | — |
| Sep 9, 2020 | Woodward Tapes Reveal Trump Downplayed COVID | critical | 20 | — | — |
| Aug 25, 2020 | Kyle Rittenhouse Shoots Protesters in Kenosha | critical | 22 | — | — |
| Aug 24, 2020 | Republican National Convention Begins | major | 13 | — | — |
| Aug 24, 2020 | Republican National Convention | major | 10 | — | — |
| Aug 23, 2020 | Kenosha Shooting | major | 18 | — | — |
| Aug 17, 2020 | Democratic National Convention | major | 10 | — | — |
| Aug 11, 2020 | Harris VP Selection | major | 10 | — | — |
| Aug 11, 2020 | Biden Picks Kamala Harris as VP | major | 16 | — | — |
| Aug 8, 2020 | Trump Signs Executive Orders on COVID Relief | major | 14 | — | — |
| Jul 17, 2020 | John Lewis Death | major | 10 | — | — |
| Jul 17, 2020 | Federal Officers Deployed to Portland | critical | 20 | — | — |
| Jun 17, 2020 | Bolton Book Revelations | major | 15 | — | — |
| Jun 15, 2020 | Supreme Court Rules LGBTQ Workers Protected | major | 16 | — | — |
| Jun 8, 2020 | CHOP/CHAZ Autonomous Zone Established in Seattle | major | 16 | — | — |
| Jun 1, 2020 | Lafayette Square Incident | major | 10 | — | — |
| Jun 1, 2020 | Lafayette Square Clearing for Trump Photo Op | critical | 22 | — | — |
| May 29, 2020 | Minneapolis Protests and Third Precinct Burns | critical | 25 | — | — |
| May 25, 2020 | George Floyd Death | critical | 30 | — | — |
| May 25, 2020 | George Floyd Killing | critical | 15 | — | — |
| May 15, 2020 | HEROES Act Passed by House | major | 13 | — | — |
| Apr 30, 2020 | Armed Protesters Storm Michigan Capitol | major | 16 | — | — |
| Apr 14, 2020 | Trump Halts WHO Funding | major | 15 | — | — |
Cross-Validation: PTI vs VIX
Verification Methodology
Detection Windows
Events are evaluated using category-aware detection windows that account for how quickly different event types affect political temperature. For example, legislation and elections are expected to register same-day, while scandals and economic events may take 1–2 days to build through the media cycle. Within each category, critical events use the tightest window and moderate events the widest.
Detection Criteria
The public Hit Rate counts only verified events where the temperature spike from the 7-day rolling average (or available prior days) meets the severity-specific response threshold (critical: +6, major: +4, moderate: +2.5, minor: +1.5). Heat Coverage is reported separately when the absolute temperature meets the severity-specific minimum (critical: 68, major: 58, moderate: 52, minor: 45); it is not counted as a response hit.
Severity Weighting
The weighted response rate assigns more importance to high-severity events: critical events are weighted 3x, major events 2x, and moderate events 1.5x. This ensures the system is evaluated most heavily on the events that matter most.
False Positive Methodology
False positives are measured against annotated baseline days, dates confirmed as politically quiet. If the temperature is more than 3 points above the 7-day rolling average on a baseline day, it counts as a false positive. Baseline Accuracy is calculated as 1 minus the false positive rate.
Data Source
Evaluations are computed against 337 source-verified historical events, spanning 2015–2026. Only the 3 verified events with overlapping temperature data affect headline response metrics today. Events pending source review and verified events without temperature coverage are quarantined from public accuracy math. All metrics are live-computed from the current database state; no percentages are hardcoded. Stored historical `accuracy_metrics` rows from before the verified-only response semantics are treated as legacy trend data, not as the source for these headline cards.