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Track Record

Accuracy metrics across 148 evaluated events

PTI has temperature data from 2026–present. 895 historical events are cataloged for reference, spanning 2015–2026.

Last evaluated: March 25, 2026 at 8:55 PM

Hit Rate

100.0%

148 of 148 events detected

Weighted Hit Rate

100.0%

Severity-weighted detection

Baseline Accuracy

100.0%

98 quiet days, 0 false positives

Correlation

-0.072

Pearson r (impact vs. spike)

148 with temperature data
148 detected
0 false positives

Detection Summary

Detected148Missed0
100.0% detection

Detection by Severity

critical

100%

4/4 detected (162 total)

major

100%

112/112 detected (560 total)

moderate

100%

32/32 detected (173 total)

Event Evaluations

895 events
Date EventSeverity ExpectedActualSpikeStatus Notes
Mar 25, 2026Congress Faces Funding Standoff Affecting TSA Operationsmajor1270.7-3.7Detected (same day, spike -3.7)
Mar 25, 2026Democrat Flips Florida House District Including Mar-a-Lagomoderate1170.7-3.7Detected (same day, spike -3.7)
Mar 25, 2026Congress Pursues DHS Funding Deal Amid Shutdownmoderate1170.7-3.7Detected (same day, spike -3.7)
Mar 24, 2026Senate Rejects Proposals on Transgender Sports Banmoderate1172.5-3.5Detected (same day, spike -3.5)
Mar 24, 2026Senate Confirms Markwayne Mullin as Homeland Security Headmajor1272.5-3.5Detected (same day, spike -3.5)
Mar 24, 2026Senate Passes Bills Protecting Immigrant Communitiesmoderate1172.5-3.5Detected (same day, spike -3.5)
Mar 24, 2026Republican States Move to Ban Abortion Pillsmajor1272.5-3.5Detected (same day, spike -3.5)
Mar 24, 2026Pentagon Tightens Press Restrictions After Court Rulingmoderate1172.5-3.5Detected (same day, spike -3.5)
Mar 24, 2026Senate Confirms Markwayne Mullin as DHS Secretarymoderate1172.5-3.5Detected (same day, spike -3.5)
Mar 23, 2026Senate Debates SAVE America Act and Voter Rightsmoderate1172.7-4.7Detected (same day, spike -4.7)
Mar 23, 2026Trump Demands SAVE America Act for DHS Fundingmoderate1172.7-4.7Detected (same day, spike -4.7)
Mar 23, 2026Trump Delays US Attacks on Iran Energy Sitesmajor1272.7-4.7Detected (same day, spike -4.7)
Mar 23, 2026Senate Blocks Democrats' DHS Funding Planmoderate1172.7-4.7Detected (same day, spike -4.7)
Mar 23, 2026Trump Delays Strikes on Iranian Power Plantsmoderate1172.7-4.7Detected (same day, spike -4.7)
Mar 22, 2026Supreme Court to Decide Mail-In Ballot Deadlinesmoderate1074.2-3.9Detected (same day, spike -3.9)
Mar 22, 2026House Republicans Subpoena Records in Protest Casemoderate3074.2-3.9Detected (same day, spike -3.9)
Mar 22, 2026Trump Threatens to Deploy ICE Amid DHS Standoffmoderate1174.2-3.9Detected (same day, spike -3.9)
Mar 22, 2026US Temporarily Lifts Sanctions on Iranian Oilmajor3074.2-3.9Detected (same day, spike -3.9)
Mar 22, 2026Former FBI Director Robert Mueller Dies at 81moderate1174.2-3.9Detected (same day, spike -3.9)
Mar 22, 2026Trump Issues Ultimatum to Iran Over Strait of Hormuzmajor1274.2-3.9Detected (same day, spike -3.9)
Mar 21, 2026Trump Administration Lifts Sanctions on Iranian Oilmoderate1175.6-3.1Detected (same day, spike -3.1)
Mar 21, 2026Robert Mueller, Former FBI Director, Dies at 81major1275.6-3.1Detected (same day, spike -3.1)
Mar 21, 2026Robert Mueller Passes Away at Age 81major1275.6-3.1Detected (same day, spike -3.1)
Mar 21, 2026Congress Aims to Prevent DHS Shutdownmajor1275.6-3.1Detected (same day, spike -3.1)
Mar 21, 2026Federal Judge Strikes Down Pentagon Press Restrictionsmajor1275.6-3.1Detected (same day, spike -3.1)
Mar 20, 2026Trump Requests $200 Billion for Iran War Fundingmoderate1178.3-0.8Detected (same day, spike -0.8)
Mar 20, 2026GOP Advances Election Overhaul Legislationmoderate1178.3-0.8Detected (same day, spike -0.8)
Mar 20, 2026Wisconsin Senate Majority Leader Announces Retirementmajor1278.3-0.8Detected (same day, spike -0.8)
Mar 20, 2026Republicans Block TSA Funding Efforts in Senatemoderate1178.3-0.8Detected (same day, spike -0.8)
Mar 20, 2026White House Requests $200 Billion for Iran Conflictmoderate1178.3-0.8Detected (same day, spike -0.8)
Mar 19, 2026Supreme Court Strikes Down Biden-Era Student Loan Programmoderate1180.5+1.1Detected (same day, spike +1.1)
Mar 19, 2026FBI Investigates Former Counterterrorism Chief Joe Kentmajor1280.5+1.1Detected (same day, spike +1.1)
Mar 19, 2026White House Requests $200 Billion for Iran Conflictmajor1280.5+1.1Detected (same day, spike +1.1)
Mar 19, 2026GOP Advances Election Overhaul Legislationmajor1280.5+1.1Detected (same day, spike +1.1)
Mar 19, 2026Trump Threatens Military Action Against Iran's Gas Fieldsmajor1280.5+1.1Detected (same day, spike +1.1)
Mar 19, 2026Senate Votes Down War Powers Resolution Against Trumpmajor1280.5+1.1Detected (same day, spike +1.1)
Mar 19, 2026White House Freezes $50 Million for Gazamajor1280.5+1.1Detected (same day, spike +1.1)
Mar 18, 2026Republicans Secure Wins in Special Elections Across Statesmajor1267.4-12.6Detected (same day, spike -12.6)
Mar 18, 2026Top Counterterrorism Official Resigns Over Iran Warmajor1267.4-12.6Detected (same day, spike -12.6)
Mar 17, 2026GOP Cuts in Federal Food Aid Complicate Farm Bill Passagemoderate1183.1+5.2Detected (same day, spike +5.2)
Mar 17, 2026Chicago Voter Turnout High for Primary Electionmajor1283.1+5.2Detected (same day, spike +5.2)
Mar 17, 2026Trump Chastises Nations Over Iran War Supportmajor1283.1+5.2Detected (same day, spike +5.2)
Mar 17, 2026Republican Rebukes FCC Chair Over Broadcast License Threatsmoderate1183.1+5.2Detected (same day, spike +5.2)
Mar 17, 2026Supreme Court to Hear Case on Haitian Protectionsmajor1283.1+5.2Detected (same day, spike +5.2)
Mar 16, 2026Senate Six Declare Opposition to Iran Warmajor1282.6+5.2Detected (same day, spike +5.2)
Mar 16, 2026Senate Advances Legislation to Ban Abortion Pillsmajor1282.6+5.2Detected (same day, spike +5.2)
Mar 16, 2026Trump Faces Scrutiny Over Iran War Decisionsmoderate1182.6+5.2Detected (same day, spike +5.2)
Mar 16, 2026Pentagon Deploys Additional Marines Amid Iran Tensionsmajor1282.6+5.2Detected (same day, spike +5.2)
Mar 16, 2026FCC Chair Threatens Broadcasters Over Iran War Coveragemajor1282.6+5.2Detected (same day, spike +5.2)
Mar 16, 2026Trump Pressures Allies to Support Military Operations in Hormuzmajor1282.6+5.2Detected (same day, spike +5.2)
Page 1 of 18

Verification Methodology

Detection Windows

Events are evaluated using severity-adaptive detection windows. Critical events must spike within 1 day, major events within 2 days, and moderate events within 3 days. This accounts for media cycle delays where stories may take time to fully develop.

Detection Criteria

An event is marked as “detected” if either condition is met: the temperature spike from the 7-day rolling average meets the severity-specific threshold (critical: +6, major: +4, moderate/minor: +2), or the absolute temperature meets the severity-specific minimum (critical: 60, major: 52, moderate/minor: 48).

Severity Weighting

The weighted hit rate assigns more importance to high-severity events: critical events are weighted 3x, major events 2x, and moderate events 1.5x. This ensures the system is evaluated most heavily on the events that matter most.

False Positive Methodology

False positives are measured against annotated baseline days — dates confirmed as politically quiet. If the temperature is significantly above average on a baseline day, it counts as a false positive. Baseline Accuracy is calculated as 1 minus the false positive rate.

Data Source

Evaluations are computed against 895+ manually annotated historical events spanning 2015–2026. All metrics are live-computed from the current database state — no percentages are hardcoded. The evaluation reruns with each page load (cached for 1 hour via ISR).